It is true that some/many Rolex AD’s will allocate the most desirable watches to customers with an existing purchase history, and that some customers therefore buy less desirable models in order to earn goodwill with the AD.
However, it is not the case that the most desirable watches are necessarily (or even on average) the most expensive models. For instance, it is generally the steel models that are the most desirable and command the highest markup from MSRP on the secondary market. The Submariner, the Daytona, the GMT-Master II: almost all of Rolex’s most iconic, most in-demand, most "flippable" watches are the full steel versions, which are the cheapest versions of those model families.
To give a concrete example, it is generally considered easier to get a full-gold GMT (~$43k) or a two-tone (half steel, half gold) GMT (~$18k) at an Authorized Dealer than it is to get the full steel version ($11k).
It is possible to reproduce one of the key claims in this post -- the "Russian tail" in the early voting tallies -- straight from the raw data hosted on the Clark County, NV website. This code can be run in a Colab notebook:
# Download and extract zip file
import requests
import zipfile
import io
# Get raw data from Clark County website
zip_url = "https://elections.clarkcountynv.gov/electionresultsTV/cvr/24G/24G_CVRExport_NOV_Final_Confidential.zip"
# Download the zip file
response = requests.get(zip_url)
zip_file = zipfile.ZipFile(io.BytesIO(response.content))
# Extract to the current working directory
zip_file.extractall()
# Close the zip file
zip_file.close()
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
# Read the actual data, skipping the first three header rows and excluding downballot races
df = pd.read_csv('/content/24G_CVRExport_NOV_Final_Confidential.csv', skiprows=3, usecols=range(21), low_memory=False)
# Find the Trump and Harris columns
trump_col = "REP"
harris_col = "DEM"
# Convert to numeric
df[trump_col] = pd.to_numeric(df[trump_col], errors='coerce')
df[harris_col] = pd.to_numeric(df[harris_col], errors='coerce')
# Filter for early voting
early_voting = df[df['CountingGroup'] == 'Early Voting']
# Group by tabulator and calculate percentages
tabulator_stats = early_voting.groupby('TabulatorNum').agg({
harris_col: 'sum',
trump_col: 'sum'
}).reset_index()
# Calculate total votes and percentages
tabulator_stats['total_votes'] = tabulator_stats[harris_col] + tabulator_stats[trump_col]
tabulator_stats['harris_pct'] = tabulator_stats[harris_col] / tabulator_stats['total_votes'] \* 100
tabulator_stats['trump_pct'] = tabulator_stats[trump_col] / tabulator_stats['total_votes'] \* 100
# Create subplots
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(10, 8))
# Plot Harris histogram
ax1.hist(tabulator_stats['harris_pct'], bins=50, edgecolor='black', color='blue', alpha=0.7)
ax1.set_title('Distribution of Harris Votes by Tabulator (Early Voting Only)')
ax1.set_xlabel('Percentage of Votes for Harris')
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Tabulators')
# Plot Trump histogram
ax2.hist(tabulator_stats['trump_pct'], bins=50, edgecolor='black', color='red', alpha=0.7)
ax2.set_title('Distribution of Trump Votes by Tabulator (Early Voting Only)')
ax2.set_xlabel('Percentage of Votes for Trump')
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Tabulators')
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
This produces a figure identical (up to histogram bucketing) to the one at the end of the linked article.
Thank you! I've run the notebook and reproduced the histograms of the early votes. I'm grateful for you sharing your work. For the other commenters who have dismissed the analysis without providing details, I would recommend that you reproduce this notebook and dig in.
Peter Eckersley (1978-2022) was posthumously inducted into the Internet Hall of Fame for his founding work on Let’s Encrypt. The Internet is a better place because of Peter (and his many collaborators and colleagues).
Vint Cerf & Bob Kahn (TCP/IP), Paul Baran (packet switching), Tim Berners-Lee (WWW), Marc Andreesen (Netscape), Brewster Kahle (Internet Archive), Douglas Engelbart (hypertext), Aaron Swartz (RSS, Creative Commons), Richard Stallman (GNU, free software movement), Van Jacobson (TCP/IP congestion control), Jimmy Wales (Wikipedia), Mitchell Baker (Mozilla), Linus Torvalds (Linux)...
...but you’re missing the point of my comment, which is simply to acknowledge and honor (my late dear friend) Peter.
Ah, I missed Linus Torvalds and you might have missed Bob Metcalfe (Ethernet) and Jon Postel (RFC work).
My point was not do criticize the achievements of the work of any of those people.
1. I was not actively aware that this hall exists
2. I am mostly critical to such awards in general. I have noted that several companies receiving the "Export company of the year" here in this country (doesn't matter which one) have went bust a couple of years later. I received the "hacker of the year" award at my workplace some years ago. It was supposed to hang with all previous awards in the cafeteria. I did not like that and "forgot" it at home. I quit the company a year later anyway.
Edit: Forgot that I worked for the "software product of the year" twice in my life. One needed heavy, painful architectural rework 3 years later. The other was Series 60. People old enough know how that went, killed a global market leader.
I won't attack Mitchell, with whom I worked closely from 1999-2014. The issue is who in general gets credit for tech. Often it is not the key engineer but the front person. I'll stop here.
Author of "The Alignment Problem" here, to say: Of course this question depends on your semantics of "harm," "AI," and "alignment," but by most definitions (and certainly by mine) the answer is overwhelmingly yes, many.
These harms can be diffuse at massive scale, and acute at small scale.
One example of each:
(1) https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aax2342
One of USA’s largest health insurers builds ML system for patient triage. It optimizes for a proxy metric of health need (namely, cost) rather than health need itself; consequently it deprioritizes and systematically excludes millions of people from access to health care.
(2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg
Autonomous Uber car builds their braking system on top of a vision model that optimizes for object classification accuracy using categories of {"pedestrian", "cyclist", "vehicle", "debris"}; consequently it fails to determine how to classify a woman walking a bicycle across the street, as a result killing her.
In both cases, optimizing for a naively sensible proxy metric of the thing that was truly desired turned out to be catastrophic.
Watch movements are generally sensitive to magnetic fields, and can become magnetized and lose accuracy. Some watch models explicitly advertise their level of resistance to magnetism, for instance the Rolex Milgauss, which is designed to withstand 1,000 ("mille") gauss.
For the donation of a single dollar, you are given access to all of his videos. I would not describe that as "exclusive," although I understand what you are saying.
It’s pretty alienating to the vast majority of underage minds who don’t have their own credit cards, as well as a tremendous amount of people outside the US who have different payment systems.
Personally, I use it to support public content, because I have the means to do so now, and because I didn’t always.
Probably some kind of interpretation of AML obligations. One could setup their own Patreon and pay themselves via cards in ways that banks, payment processors, and possibly law enforcement would rather you didn’t.
I come across this a lot when trying to pay for things with Cash App or Coinbase Card, as they are both classed as prepaid cards for reasons I don’t understand.
It would be interesting to see real-world numbers on the prevalence of money laundering via $1-$10 monthly payments to Patreon, compared to other online vendors who accept legally-permitted prepaid card payments. Most prepaid cards are limited to relatively small amounts anyway, precisely to make them less usable for money laundering.
> secret documents leaked from FinCEN, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a unit of the U.S. Treasury. The documents “show that five global banks — JPMorgan, HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Bank of New York Mellon — kept profiting from powerful and dangerous players even after U.S. authorities fined these financial institutions for earlier failures to stem flows of dirty money.”
In comparison to 7 figure flows, Patreon restrictions on already-limited prepaid cards are AML theater.
I love this conversation. If anything, I feel like I’m late to this party, and I’m not even trying to do anything that isn’t expressly allowed.
To your point about small amounts, I think that is also monetizable with fake/stolen accounts cashing in on referral and promotional “free money,” combined with widespread flip/swap scams. I wonder if patio11 could enlighten us with some hard numbers on the dollar values of attempted fraudulent purchases. I suspect that actual card swipe fraud to be high dollar items sent to dead drops, and low dollar fraud utilizing unauthorized access to others’ accounts and money transfer apps, and so-called “friendly fraud.”
On a related note, scam rap is so lit right now. I’ll just leave this right here. Teejayx6 really gets the subculture, and as a child who grew up learning how to hack in the wild 90s, he speaks truth. He may have created the subgenre, but raps about ill-gotten gains are as old as soul music.
> I just made a fake GoFundMe someone send donations
I can't afford to be a patron for all the channels I like. Maybe I'm in the minority for my salary but $100 or $200 / month is not a thing I can afford, or even half that.
I can see why you might think that on a first impression, but I genuinely think you’d be surprised! (Book has been discussed on HN quite a few times, e.g., https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25717949.)
Current title ("Peter Norvig Leaves Google to Join Stanford HAI") seems to overstate slightly. According to Peter: "I still have my affiliation with Google, but will spend most of my time at Stanford."
It is true that some/many Rolex AD’s will allocate the most desirable watches to customers with an existing purchase history, and that some customers therefore buy less desirable models in order to earn goodwill with the AD.
However, it is not the case that the most desirable watches are necessarily (or even on average) the most expensive models. For instance, it is generally the steel models that are the most desirable and command the highest markup from MSRP on the secondary market. The Submariner, the Daytona, the GMT-Master II: almost all of Rolex’s most iconic, most in-demand, most "flippable" watches are the full steel versions, which are the cheapest versions of those model families.
To give a concrete example, it is generally considered easier to get a full-gold GMT (~$43k) or a two-tone (half steel, half gold) GMT (~$18k) at an Authorized Dealer than it is to get the full steel version ($11k).