You're also forgetting BRICs and the EU's efforts to create their own banking systems that would make it easier to do trade and finances without the dollar as an intermediary. The dollar being the reserve currency is going to be come more sudden once mass adoption of those platforms takes hold. Who can blame them with how the US is behaving
"BRICS" is one of those organizations of countries that make even OPEC (famous for being non-commital, non-punishing, barely advisorial organization that doesn't meet it's own goals since the 1980's) look like a very serious group.
Does your data include 2025? Because it was the only year with any international pushback at all, so we shouldn't expect the previous trend to stay unperturbed.
The US dollar being used less across the world has both negative and positive consequences for the US and USG. This is the Triffin Dilemma, and dates back to the 1960s; the USD's dominance over-values the currency relative to other currencies, which hurts exports and thus domestic manufacturing. It also conflicts USG/UST priorities between making decisions that are best for the US people, versus best for international customers of the dollar. Triffin covered this at length in his address to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in 1959, but in short, the USD acting as world reserve currency creates demand for the dollar, which the US has to be able to supply, which pre-1971 meant extreme strain on her gold supply, and post-1971 means greater monetary inflation.
Most think that the cracks in the financial system started to appear after 2008 (global financial crisis) and become truly visible after the financial system was weaponized through the seizures of Russian central bank USD reserves. It setup a precedent that it happened once it could happen again to some other country.
Cheers to you for mentioning Triffin's dilemma. In my opinion, the dilemma is in the ability of the host country to be able to make "good use" of the exorbitant privilege. The financial system was not only used against other states but against its own people. Instead of developing the country and building equity through the middle class, it cannibalized its own.
To be generous, asset holders are hurt less by a weakening dollar than non-asset holders (all else equal). To put it another way, do you think billionaires will let themselves suffer before their employees suffer?
The Trump cabinet is explicitly determined to improve its trade imbalance (export / import) and has spoken about the US dollar’s relative strength as a weakness in trade imbalance.
There’s a delicate, fine line between dedollarization and a heavily weakened dollar, especially when the methods used are viewed as fickle and capricious (tariffs, threats). So it’s basically four choices:
- Dedollarization is not happening (#nothingeverhappens)
- Dedollarization is happening, but not because of anything the Trump admin is doing (lol)
- Dedollarization is happening and the Trump admin is either causing it or exacerbating it, despite not coming out explicitly favoring it (they’re idiots)
- Dedollarization is happening and it’s being orchestrated by the Trump admin (5d chess / malicious actors)