C. And the estate may just want to sell more Steam shares to keep whatever they are intact
D. Even if by some miracle Gabe Newell still owns the required ~85% of Steam to barely squeak by on federal estate taxes ($16B presumed valuation = ~$5.5 billion tax bill if he owned 85%, leaving him with ~51% after payment), who is taking the reins?
- edits - additional points -
E. I forgot Gabe Newell lives in Seattle. If Washington is his actual residence, then Washington has an additional 35% tax rate on high-value estates. Which makes it completely impossible even with 100% ownership.
F. Why would his estate even bother trying to salvage Gabe's vision at this point, when they're left with an illiquid minority stake? A very possible scenario is to sell all shares they possess, in one transaction. The possibility of majority control could inflate the share price dramatically over a piecemeal sale.
G. In which case, within 9 months of Gabe's death (IRS deadline), there is a high likelihood there will be an estate auction of all shares to any willing purchaser (highest value per share extracted + tax bill paid). And that purchaser will then have immediate intent to cash in.
H. Betting on Steam then, promoting them as better than other companies, is completely dependent on Gabe's actuarial tables. Not to be harsh but just honest, considering Gabe's decades of obesity before getting to a healthier place now, they're probably worse than average, as long-term obesity has persistent irrevocable effects. (This sounds harsh, but actuarial analysis is directly used in insurance and estate planning; you can be assured every major company's CEO has been assessed.)
I’d have to assume that a man of his wealth has an army of accountants and attorneys working for him and they have his assets sufficiently shielded from taxes through webs of trusts, shell companies, charitable foundations and so on.
Just speaking from things we can see, he owns yachts, a yacht building company, and a racing team. He also quite likely has a large investment portfolio like every other billionaire on the planet.
Let's say all those things added up to even $2B, as a hypothetical.
That means there's a $800M tax bill to keep those assets. If the estate has already lost majority control of Steam regardless; there's no real reason to not hand over even more of Steam, to keep hold of those other assets.
