> don't think the public understands how far behind they are
The public watches cropped launch videos and then scrolls on to the next issue. Most Americans probably couldn’t say what Starship is.
> it has been slower than both Apollo and Shuttle
For a fraction of the cost.
> It's making the 2027 Artimis III moon landing increasingly unrealistic
The entire Artemis programme has been a boondoggle. But while SpaceX is building a new launch vehicle and tackling propellant transfer, Lockheed can’t stop fucking up a legacy heat shield.
(I’m still like 4:1 on Orion, not HLS, being the reason Artemis 3 is delayed [1].)
> Keep in mind Starship hasn't even achieved orbit yet
It’s in development for reuse at a scale of rocketry we’ve never done before. It’s weird to hold a literal moonshot R&D project to consumer timelines like this.
After this (11) test, if Block 3 and Pad 2 validate (12), we could see an orbital attempt in Q1 ‘26 (13). I’d be shocked if orbital insertion is not succeeded in 2026; the big question is how much refurbishment will be required. (Given SpaceX is basically the only group in the world to have solved this problem, I wouldn’t hold my breath.)
Beyond Artemis, it looks more likely than not that Starship will be delivering cargo to LEO by the end of 2027. This not only represents a major leap in capacity and cost advantage, it obsoletes several rockets on the books in Europe and Asia through the late 2030s.
The public watches cropped launch videos and then scrolls on to the next issue. Most Americans probably couldn’t say what Starship is.
> it has been slower than both Apollo and Shuttle
For a fraction of the cost.
> It's making the 2027 Artimis III moon landing increasingly unrealistic
The entire Artemis programme has been a boondoggle. But while SpaceX is building a new launch vehicle and tackling propellant transfer, Lockheed can’t stop fucking up a legacy heat shield.
(I’m still like 4:1 on Orion, not HLS, being the reason Artemis 3 is delayed [1].)
> Keep in mind Starship hasn't even achieved orbit yet
It’s in development for reuse at a scale of rocketry we’ve never done before. It’s weird to hold a literal moonshot R&D project to consumer timelines like this.
After this (11) test, if Block 3 and Pad 2 validate (12), we could see an orbital attempt in Q1 ‘26 (13). I’d be shocked if orbital insertion is not succeeded in 2026; the big question is how much refurbishment will be required. (Given SpaceX is basically the only group in the world to have solved this problem, I wouldn’t hold my breath.)
Beyond Artemis, it looks more likely than not that Starship will be delivering cargo to LEO by the end of 2027. This not only represents a major leap in capacity and cost advantage, it obsoletes several rockets on the books in Europe and Asia through the late 2030s.
[1] https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-delays-...