I dropped good money somewhat early on for LEDs that were supposed to last at least that long (some name brand, no idea what at this point), and I don't think I even got a year out of them.
At that point, I decided to just buy the cheap ones because that was easier than dealing with the warranty process anyway.
The trick is figuring out where in the product lifecycle you are. Early on you want to go cheap, because you’ll be able to get way better for cheaper in a year or two anyway. Later on once the technology has matured this is less true.
At that point, I decided to just buy the cheap ones because that was easier than dealing with the warranty process anyway.