My experience from predicting on Metaculus, and following this space for a few years, is that it's hard to operationalize the thing you want to predict precisely. Regularly, things go completely sideways in ways that the author did not foresee, and the market ends up hinging on some technicality, rather than the spirit of the question it tried to predict.

Some examples:

    - A question about asset prices specifies FTX as resolution source, but then FTX stopped existing.
    - There was a question about wether submarine cables in the Red Sea would be destroyed by a hostile act before a certain date. The cables got damaged, but it seemed to be a (suspicious) accident, with very limited independent media coverage.
    - There is a question about wether YouTube would be blocked in a certain country before 2025. It got throttled, to the point where it is unusable in practice, but not technically blocked.
    - There is a question trying to forecast LLM progress. How to quantify that? It chose "What is the state of the art score on the Penn Treebank at a certain date?", which was a standard benchmark at the time. But as LLMs evolved, new benchmarks got developed, and although current LLMs probably score much better on the Penn Treebank than a few years ago, nobody reports Penn Treebank score any more. The question ended up being about the popularity of the benchmark rather than LLM progress.