> It seems like the high ancient world was so close to industrializing.
Bret Devereaux proposed that Industrial Revolution was due to a highly improbable coincidence of circumstances.[1] It all started with a steam engine, and very inefficient one at first[2]. But it had found it place, and then James Watt made the better engine and it also found its uses. It gave time for material science and thermodynamics to catch up, and then steam engines became light enough to power ships and then locomotives.
Industrial Revolution, if we look closer took a lot of relatively small steps, and some of these steps made sense only because the stars lined up. Now people consciously "line up stars" to move progress forward, but then it was really a coincidence.
Yet another thing to put in the bag of Fermi paradox answers: would industrialization and high technology be likely without fossil fuels?
Of course we have solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and nuclear, but all of those are hard to access at any kind of scale without at the very least modern metallurgy and advanced materials made possible by fossil fuel energy. Modern renewable energy isn't possible without things like silicon PV, advanced materials for huge wind turbines, and batteries that are the product of extremely advanced materials science and manufacturing technology.
Fossil fuels were basically the thermodynamic seed capital.
It technically could have been done more slowly with wood and other biomass as a fuel and feedstock, but it seems like it would have been less likely to occur.
Industry consumes enormous amounts of energy/power. Access to energy/power is a form of wealth. A civilization without access to large amounts of energy and power beyond the needs of a primitive agrarian or hunter-gatherer society cannot industrialize. To industrialize, industrial amounts of energy and power are required.
As well access to iron is required. And then eventually steel. All of this requires knowledge and writing and printing so that knowledge can be accumulated and propagated.
Late 18th century England and its colonies had access to all of these things. Coal, iron, printing presses, and universities. As well it had an political and economic structure that made risk-taking easy -- all the other prerequisites without risk-taking would still amount to the industrial revolution not happening.
Bret Devereaux proposed that Industrial Revolution was due to a highly improbable coincidence of circumstances.[1] It all started with a steam engine, and very inefficient one at first[2]. But it had found it place, and then James Watt made the better engine and it also found its uses. It gave time for material science and thermodynamics to catch up, and then steam engines became light enough to power ships and then locomotives.
Industrial Revolution, if we look closer took a lot of relatively small steps, and some of these steps made sense only because the stars lined up. Now people consciously "line up stars" to move progress forward, but then it was really a coincidence.
[1] https://acoup.blog/2022/08/26/collections-why-no-roman-indus... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomen_atmospheric_engine