In my personal experience, cynicism seems more like a fixed personality trait people have than one that is rationally borne out of experience.
If you had been holding a representative basket of tech stocks right before the dot-com bust (a classic "hype cycle"), you would be beating the S&P 500 today if you just held on to them, even after most of those companies went bankrupt. Even on crypto, it is too early to call.
The fact that you bridge so easily from crypto to LLM suggests to me you're not really considering these things on the merits and are over-focused on the who and cultural alignment of the people behind various inventions, rather than the creations themselves. /2c
Yeah, I have a few "lottery tickets". I put a smallish amount of money into a wide variety of things that I don't actively manage. It includes crypto, tech stocks, hell, even magic the gathering cards from my childhood.
The plan is when the kids are college aged to see how it nets out and pay as much as I can from that.
If you had been holding a representative basket of tech stocks right before the dot-com bust (a classic "hype cycle"), you would be beating the S&P 500 today if you just held on to them, even after most of those companies went bankrupt. Even on crypto, it is too early to call.
The fact that you bridge so easily from crypto to LLM suggests to me you're not really considering these things on the merits and are over-focused on the who and cultural alignment of the people behind various inventions, rather than the creations themselves. /2c