Well, you can learn to program and much of that would still remain true. Many low level tech jobs are indeed outsourced, AI is causing a huge shift in investment away from traditional tech, and we're in the middle of another burst bubble right now. If you're just entering school now, maybe things will be different in a few years. But good luck trying to get an entry level tech job anywhere right now.
And more to the point, we probably don't need this many programmers. The industry just shed several hundred thousand of us over the last 2 or 3 years. It seemed like an inevitable correction to the overhiring of the covid boom.
If paulg is Paul Graham, well, presumably he's a VC and investor, and cheap programmer labor is good for people in his class. Commoditized coders + AI supplementation = rich investors at the top.
It's not so good for existing programmers who already have trouble finding work, and not so good for the new programmers who are just signing up to become part of an ever larger bureaucracy.
Shrug. If I were young, I'd definitely choose another career.
Tech was certainly not over after the dotcom bubble burst, which is what he's talking about.
People have lost jobs to offshoring, but the growth in software engineering demand in the US vastly outpaced the losses to offshoring. If anything, offshoring helped deal with the fact that demand vastly outpaced supply over the last few decades.
As for "we probably don't need this many programmers"... maybe? Or more accurately, we probably don't need this many programmers making as much money as they were making for the past few years. Corrections happen in every sector now and then.
I don't have a Twitter account and can't see the context around his post, but all of these things can be true at the same time. It's not a binary yes/no you should/should not learn to program situation... all of those are variables to consider.
If someone's not interested in programming, they shouldn't feel obligated to learn it just because someone with outside economic interests wants them to. These folks don't necessarily have their best interests at heart (like VCs, CEOs, presidents, or other people who would benefit from the fruits of programmer labor more than the programmers themselves would).
As a class, programmers are some of the least happy people I know, and burnout seems to be increasingly common. Sure, we make more money on average (even then, not always, compared to mid-managers and such) but you make a lot of health and social sacrifices in choosing this career path. It's a lonely, often dreary path full of debugging often-pointless code that will largely be discarded in a few years anyway.
I'd still stand by the overall gist of my comment, that the overall economic conditions have changed since the 90s and 2000s, when tech easily made a whole class of zillionnaires. These days, for most of us in the industry, it's just another middle-class job.
To be fair, though, there aren't many middle class jobs left :( IMO that's the bigger problem, not a lack of run-of-the-mill programmers.
Probably some sort of actual engineering in the physical world (like renewables). But I'm terrible at math, so probably would've washed out early lol. I'm actually trying to get into an engineering program now, but I don't think I can afford to spend another 6-7 years of my life chasing that =/ Might have to choose something else instead.
I am a mechanical engineer turned software engineer. Had a great job as a test engineer, hands on and wrote test software. I also made half of what I make now as a software engineer, with abysmal benefits. I am thankful for all the hands on skills I learned in those 3 years, but the software life is so much better for me personally.
Thank you for the perspective! I don't think any other regular job would be as cushy as software engineering, but that's ok with me. Software seems ridiculously overpaid to me, and it actually kinda rubs my work ethic the wrong way. I frequently hear of (and see) people working only a few days a week but making bank... that doesn't inspire me, it just saddens me that society is wasting that kind of money. (Not saying you're like that, just some of the stories/people I know.)
Anyway, personally, I am particularly interested in civil infrastructure engineering. I never made all that much as a software person anyway (capped out at $100k after 10+ years of full-time work, 20 years of experience), and I don't have kids or a mortgage. I just want the opportunity to do something more meaningful and contribute to society more.
If you're afraid of AI, I have bad news: it's just as capable of taking those jobs as it is of taking software engineering jobs, or any other white-collar job.
I'm not "afraid" of AI per se... the Borg have been my dream since childhood, lol. I look forward to it, just worried about the huge displacements it will have under our current hypercapitalistic system with a weak government and poor safety nets. It's gonna hurt, regardless of what I personally do for work :(
And more to the point, we probably don't need this many programmers. The industry just shed several hundred thousand of us over the last 2 or 3 years. It seemed like an inevitable correction to the overhiring of the covid boom.
If paulg is Paul Graham, well, presumably he's a VC and investor, and cheap programmer labor is good for people in his class. Commoditized coders + AI supplementation = rich investors at the top.
It's not so good for existing programmers who already have trouble finding work, and not so good for the new programmers who are just signing up to become part of an ever larger bureaucracy.
Shrug. If I were young, I'd definitely choose another career.