I dont know if that best case is in Amazon's interest. That is to say, they might not want to play in that space and it is pretty far from it's core competencies.
Financially, Amazon can currently benefit from Rivian selling vehicles at a loss. If Amazon purchases Rivian, Rivian's losses are now Amazon's. They would be out both the purchase price, and ongoing expenses.
If Rivian succeeds, they will be a good supplier. If Rivian will fail, Amazon doesnt want to be the one holding the bag.
Protecting the supply chain of parts for 10k vehicles is not worth much.
1. What percentage of AWS revenue is VC funded companies? I'm sure it's a good percentage, but AWS also sells to a lot of fortune 500s.
2. AWS takes on a lot of risk. They buy hardware with lifespans measured in years and sell its use by the second. Not to mention directly competing against major divisions of Microsoft and Google cannot feel comforting.
Just because cloud spends are low doesn't mean there's more room to gain for cloud. The biggest expenditure in IT, onprem or cloud, is talent. Which is why a lot of CIOs at big corps are "excited" about the whole "ChatGPT for code" trend (not that most of them don't have much experience in the space to actually evaluate that premise).
I've worked with many, many companies as an employee of Amazon. The majority of the companies I've worked with aren't VC funded companies. That's anecdotal of course. But it'd be incorrect to imply that AWS gets most of its revenue from VC funded companies.
VC funded startups start with AWS free credits build a bloated service and then are too big to move (vendor lock in) but they still have VC money to pay the bills
Correct, yep. Which is why tax avoidance is not a crime, but tax evasion is.
It would be a rather strange conversation with an accountant doing your taxes, if you walked up and said “hey, can you make it so that i pay more taxes than the legal minimum I am obligated to?”
Yes, I’m sure if it weren’t for the taxes, they wouldn’t have any problem creating billions of dollars worth of warehouses, spending even more money for a logistics network.
Because it's making things that are useful to you. The cost of operating Rivian as a zombie company for a few more years might be less than the cost of replacing their vans or finding another supplier for parts.
(You might say that in that case Amazon should be willing to pay enough for those parts/maintenance to make Rivian profitable, but they might be willing to pay more for an in-house department that will operate the way they want than for an external company that might waste money continuing to chase other revenue sources instead of gracefully winding down)
In a scenario where Rivian fails and AWS buys it out of bankruptcy it would presumably cost a lot less than 17 billion. That it's currently burning a billion per year is exactly why it might be worth bringing in house, where they can presumably cut that by a lot.
Plus, outside of the core competency issue, Rivian makes trucks and commercial vans.
UPS or others could start to buy Rivian products. But if Amazon owns them, and is using them for their own fleet, thus competing with Amazon Delivery Services, UPS would then be buying from the competition
Financially, Amazon can currently benefit from Rivian selling vehicles at a loss. If Amazon purchases Rivian, Rivian's losses are now Amazon's. They would be out both the purchase price, and ongoing expenses.
If Rivian succeeds, they will be a good supplier. If Rivian will fail, Amazon doesnt want to be the one holding the bag.
Protecting the supply chain of parts for 10k vehicles is not worth much.