Largely agree with this analysis, however your claim about nvidia:
> There is no way the nVidia monopoly will last more than another two years tops.
I feel as if I've heard paraphrases of this sentiment for at least the last ~6 years. Is there a reason you think nvidia's monopoly is decreasing or will decrease? They have quite the lead in terms of market share for discrete GPUs AFAICT (https://www.tomshardware.com/news/gpu-market-healthy-and-vib...). Even if costs go down etc., there are market dynamics at play here that I'm not convinced this industry will get disrupted anytime soon. The only major competitors in innovation for this space are Apple, Intel, and AMD, with Apple being the only one with manufacturing improvements, and that's a walled garden with very low market share for desktop computing.
I'm generally in agreement with all your points, but I would propose that it's not _only_ the hardware that is serving as NVIDIA's moat.
They have poured an enormous amount of time and effort into CUDA and its related libraries. All of that work—in addition to the hardware—is what makes their moat deep and wide. If AMD and/or others invest similarly in ROCm, that will be very telling. Oh, and the work that the Mojo folks are doing is also very interesting; I could also see that as a looming threat for NVIDIA!
> There is no way the nVidia monopoly will last more than another two years tops.
I feel as if I've heard paraphrases of this sentiment for at least the last ~6 years. Is there a reason you think nvidia's monopoly is decreasing or will decrease? They have quite the lead in terms of market share for discrete GPUs AFAICT (https://www.tomshardware.com/news/gpu-market-healthy-and-vib...). Even if costs go down etc., there are market dynamics at play here that I'm not convinced this industry will get disrupted anytime soon. The only major competitors in innovation for this space are Apple, Intel, and AMD, with Apple being the only one with manufacturing improvements, and that's a walled garden with very low market share for desktop computing.