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> It is in fact so good that people can sleep in their cars and not crash -- and I wouldn't bet that the guy who sleeps in the car only did it once!

This thinking is absolutely going to get someone killed. It’s also why Tesla faces so much criticism.

Any improvement under 99.999% is unremarkable because the end product is unusable. No one is going to buy a car that crashes once a year.

Disengagements should be unheard of if Elon wants to continue selling FSD.



Any improvement _over_ 99.999% is impossible. Saying something like this is completely detached from reality. People _do_ buy cars that crash once a year. All the time. And often the defects in the system aren't even related to self driving functionality. Further, most drivers who get in a car have records far worse than that.


No, on basically all accounts. In the US there is a fatality every 75,000,000 miles, a injury every 1,250,000 miles, and a reported accident every 550,000 miles on average [1]. From a "reliability" perspective, we can reasonably assume that at any given time, you will probably crash in less than a minute without control over your car. The average driver probably averages ~40 MPH per unit time. So, on a minute basis that is one fatality per 111,000,000 minutes (99.999999%, 8 9s) a injury every 1,875,000 minutes (99.99995%, 6 9s), a accident every 315,000 minutes (99.9996%, 5 9s).

Even the worst component of the driving system (the driver) is solidly over 99.999%. And every single hardware component is vastly better than the driver. The Pinto, a classic example of a death trap, only resulted in a hardware-induced fatality something like every 1,000,000,000 miles, or using the minute basis above a fatality every 1,500,000,000 minutes (99.9999999%, 9 9s). The person you responded to is correct, 99.999% is unusably, criminally bad.

[1] https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf




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