Imho his latest book isn't the best starting point. He justifies his basic thesis more in earlier books, but in the latest he just reviews it and moves on to new material. The argument is not just a reaction to Trump; he lays it out first in The Accidental Superpower, published in 2014. (This book is fascinating in its own right, covering a broad sweep of history starting from ancient Egypt.)
Zeihan's predictions don't extend much past the next decade. Governments can enact policies to encourage childbearing but it will still take 20 years to make a 20-year-old. Immigration is another matter of course, but for many countries, cultural issues make that difficult. The US does a pretty good job of assimilating immigrants and giving them a fairly equal place in society. Many other countries do not, and that makes them less attractive to immigrants.
Internationally, the US has definitely stepped up more this year. But during and shortly after the Cold War, the US fought serious wars to defend the borders of other countries, maintaining our credibility as global security guarantor. I don't think we're near so dedicated to that these days. We'll sanction, and share weapons and intel, but that's relatively cheap.
Zeihan's predictions don't extend much past the next decade. Governments can enact policies to encourage childbearing but it will still take 20 years to make a 20-year-old. Immigration is another matter of course, but for many countries, cultural issues make that difficult. The US does a pretty good job of assimilating immigrants and giving them a fairly equal place in society. Many other countries do not, and that makes them less attractive to immigrants.
Internationally, the US has definitely stepped up more this year. But during and shortly after the Cold War, the US fought serious wars to defend the borders of other countries, maintaining our credibility as global security guarantor. I don't think we're near so dedicated to that these days. We'll sanction, and share weapons and intel, but that's relatively cheap.