> if it is growing exponentially, you’d expect the number of people meeting the criteria to also grow exponentially.
I don't know for Japan, but here in Canada, on top of showing symptoms, we need to have taken an international flight, or be in contact with a known carrier. The number of people having taken a flight won't grow... that's for sure, and contact, well it's recursive at that point and depends on whether you were in contact with someone that has taken a flight, has shown symptoms, has taken the test instead of following the quarantine asked, and has been positive. So essentially in our case, the number of people meeting the criteria can only go down actually.
We would expect the number of people requiring hospitalization with symptoms to grow though. I don't know if that's enough to skip the criteria though, here in Quebec our number of death got lowered yesterday because the test came back negative...
It does makes sense though to keep theses criterias, because most case doesn't require hospitalization, and there's a very limited amount of test available. In Quebec it seems like we are now able to carry enough test for people with theses criterias, so with some luck, we will remove the contact criteria soon, and get a better picture of the propagation.
In South Korea 30% of the infected are in the 20-30 range, it's most probably the same everywhere but we just don't know it because they would most probably be asymptomatics.
I don't know for Japan, but here in Canada, on top of showing symptoms, we need to have taken an international flight, or be in contact with a known carrier. The number of people having taken a flight won't grow... that's for sure, and contact, well it's recursive at that point and depends on whether you were in contact with someone that has taken a flight, has shown symptoms, has taken the test instead of following the quarantine asked, and has been positive. So essentially in our case, the number of people meeting the criteria can only go down actually.
We would expect the number of people requiring hospitalization with symptoms to grow though. I don't know if that's enough to skip the criteria though, here in Quebec our number of death got lowered yesterday because the test came back negative...
It does makes sense though to keep theses criterias, because most case doesn't require hospitalization, and there's a very limited amount of test available. In Quebec it seems like we are now able to carry enough test for people with theses criterias, so with some luck, we will remove the contact criteria soon, and get a better picture of the propagation.
In South Korea 30% of the infected are in the 20-30 range, it's most probably the same everywhere but we just don't know it because they would most probably be asymptomatics.