"But every now and again, I see the market move in such a completely unreasonable way, most often hammering a stock on some bad, but not awful news."
These obvious moments do happen sometimes. Not always, but they can give an edge to knowledgable people paying attention (most HNers know tech better than the average stock analyst/trader). I remember the night Trump won, the futures market reacted like the world ended. While the world might end at some point in the future, it certainly was not going to end the next day.
With that said, these moments do not happen frequently enough and turn out correctly for the investor to consistently make money.
That's why I said they a) don't happen that frequently and b) do not always turn out positive. Black swan events do happen. I joke with my currency trading friends about 'picking up nickels in front of a steam roller'. It works great, until suddenly it doesn't and you're broke.
These obvious moments do happen sometimes. Not always, but they can give an edge to knowledgable people paying attention (most HNers know tech better than the average stock analyst/trader). I remember the night Trump won, the futures market reacted like the world ended. While the world might end at some point in the future, it certainly was not going to end the next day.
With that said, these moments do not happen frequently enough and turn out correctly for the investor to consistently make money.