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No, not really. Most currencies have a value which can be tied to real-world value at the most reductionist via which governments accept it for tax and the stability of those governments.

Bitcoin is different, not just because of the lack of government backing but also because the way it is structured meant the earlier people got into it the more bitcoins they got. (Fundamentally because mining rewards reduce over time).

But that's irrelevant to fact you've missed the point of his quote, that most people buying other currencies are doing it with purpose (such as hedging) and considering their value, whereas people buying bitcoins are doing it for speculative reasons and aren't making a judgement on where they think the price of bitcoin ought to be.



I think the price of bitcoin is hugely, immensely overvalued (because you can buy things with it at even fewer stores now than a few years ago). That doesn't mean I don't think it will be twice as overvalued in the future.


I'm not sure it is overvalued, at least in the medium term.

Ransomware forces people to buy bitcoin while at the same time making the bitcoins spent unspendable (because spending them will get you caught).

If you controlled all bitcoin, the way to make money with ransomware is selling your legitimate coins to people who need to buy them to fulfil their ransoms.

Each ransom paid decreases the bitcoin in circulation which further puts pressure on the price. Eventually the pool of legitimate bitcoin will be tiny, but ransoms will still get paid, so the ransom demands will be smaller and smaller in bitcoin denomination. If we assume the ransoms that people are willing to pay is steady in dollar value then that will push the price of bitcoin up.

There is tremendous inflationary pressure on a fragile bitcoin eco-system. It can withstand high inflation because no-one has their salaries or bills in bitcoin.

Where does deflationary pressure come from? It will have bubble cycles that will bubble and pop but overall even as it gets less popular by users, the actual price can rise and rise if the currency circulates slower and slower. The last few bag-holders might have huge paper wealth before they realise there's no one left to actually buy their coins.

I don't think it's a legitimate investment though, it's still a pyramid scheme by it's nature (Satoshi still owns a large proportion of all coins) and even without that investing in bitcoin is investing in cyber-terrorism and funding criminals. (Unlike the "if you download MP3s you're funding terror" bullshit this one is actually closer to the truth).


I don't understand one thing in your argument:

> Ransomware forces people to buy bitcoin while at the same time making the bitcoins spent unspendable (because spending them will get you caught).

There must be a way to "launder" those bitcoins, because otherwise, as a criminal, why would I want to get ransom in coins that I can't later spend on anything?


A currency has value because you can force any shop keeper to accept it as payment against some good, and in certain cases you can convert it against gold. The minute commerce doesn't accept the currency for payments and the central bank won't convert it for gold, it has become worthless, irrespective of how hard it is to make copies of the bank note.

And keeping in mind very few people hold much currency. Usually you hold a deposit account, i.e. you lent to your bank. It is a low risk/low yield investment.




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